HURRICANE MITCH

One of the most devestating hurricanes of our time to cripple the country of Honduras was Hurricane Mitch. Hondurans watched in disbelief as Mitch circled just off the coast, leading no clues as to where it would strike next. To the amazement of all, it took a surprising turn and tore through the very center of the country, destroying major cities such as San Pedro Sula, and even the capital of Tegucigalpa. The flooding was indescribable. San Pedro Sula's newly completed ultra-modern airport was 6 feet underwater. Its brand new, top of the line computer systems were useless. All equipment would need to be replaced. In outlying areas, people stranded on rooftops, surrounded by water, were helicoptered out to safety. Guananja, the most heavily damaged of the Bay Islands, would take years to recover.

Statistics can never truly paint an appropriate picture of the affects of such a hurricane. The impact of the lives lost, the destruction, and the entire economic impact cannot be measured in numbers. We have included those numbers here for those needing them for research purposes, but we encourage you to visit the personal news reports and click on the links to the photos below. The reports were written by people experiencing the hurricane as it was happening, and taking photos of their beloved hometowns during an extremely painful time. Rebuilding the country of Honduras took the strength of all its people, and that of many generous and empathetic donators of money, and more importantly, time. Help poured in from such far away nations as Japan, England, and Russia. The majority of countries donated to the cause of rebuilding Honduras. Hurricane Mitch's only good outcome was the bonding of humanity, across several lands, to forge ahead and create beauty from chaos.

Following is a brief timeline of the hurricane's life:

22 October: Tropical Depression `Thirteen' forms (winds less than 39 mph), but by the end of the day is upgraded to Tropical Storm Mitch (winds greater than 39 mph) and starts moving northwards.
24 October: Mitch is upgraded to a hurricane (winds greater than 74 mph).
25 October: Hurricane Mitch turns towards the west.
26 October: Winds near the centre of the hurricane peak at 180 mph.
27 October: Mitch starts to weaken, but turns southwards towards the northern coast of Honduras.
29 October: Mitch is downgraded to a tropical storm and makes landfall over Honduras.
31 October: Mitch is downgraded to a tropical depression whilst moving slowly south-westwards and still producing heavy rain.
01 November: Mitch dissipates as a depression over Guatemala.
03 November: The remnants of Mitch have moved northwards and reform as a tropical storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico.
05 November: Mitch makes landfall on the Gulf coast of southern Florida.
06 November: Mitch is declared `extra-tropical' as it heads north-eastwards across the Atlantic.

After becoming an `extra-tropical' storm Mitch raced across the Atlantic and developed into a vigorous depression bringing stormy conditions to the north and west of the UK.

The Records

Hurricane Mitch became the joint fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record. On 26 October 1998 a central pressure of 905 mb was measured along with wind speeds averaged over one minute of 155 knots (180 mph). Here are the previous records:-

GILBERT (1988) 888 mb
UNNAMED (1935) 892 mb
ALLEN (1980) 899 mb
CAMILLE (1969) 905 mb

It must be noted that these records are for the Atlantic and Caribbean only. Many more hurricanes and typhoons of this strength have formed in the Pacific Ocean over the years.

Whilst Mitch was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record, the winds abated considerably as the storm moved inland. It was actually the huge amount of rainfall deposited by such a slow moving storm which caused most of the damage. Most rainfall recording instruments would have been destroyed during the storm. However, some records which survived indicated rainfall totals in Southern Honduras of 25" in 36 hours and 10" in 6 hours between 29 and 31 October*.

* source: Jon Hellin (Natural Resources Institute) and Corporacion Hondurena de Desarrollo Forestal.

Disaster Center - Updated Info on Latest Disasters Natural Hazards Updates

Governmental Disaster Information

Office of Homeland Security

DHS Disaster Help

Emergency Planning and Prevention

Emergency Response and Recovery
USGS CINDI
USGS
USGS Hazards
NOAA Imagery
NGDC-Natural Hazards Databases
Pacific Disaster Center
Western Disaster Center
US Army Corps of Eng. Disaster Links
NASA-Terra Data Access
EPA Project EMPACT
EPA Environmental Emergencies

FEMA
FEMA Media Site
FEMA Disaster Map
How to Prepare for Disaster

FEMA: A Citizen's Guide to Preparedness
Dept. of Interior Natural Hazards

Business and Industry Guide for Emergency Management

Ready.Gov: Useful Sites

Other
ESRI-Hazards
Disasterrelief.org
Relief Web
Incident.com Events Map
CIESEN
Disastercenter
Disastercenter's Daily Report
Disasters.org

Environmental News Network

Global Health Disaster Network
Disaster Message Service
UN Int'l Disasters Page
Alertnet

Earthweek
Int'l Disaster Monitoring (Asia/Japan) ADRC: Asian Disaster Reduction Center

Click Here to Visit HONDURAS.COM!

Proud to be Listed on

Chat live using the Honduras.com
Chat Room

Mitch is responsible for over nine thousand deaths predominately from rain-induced flooding in portions of Central America, mainly in Honduras and Nicaragua. This makes Mitch one of the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclonesin history, ranking only below the 1780 "Great Hurricane" in the Lesser Antilles, and comparable to the Galveston hurricane of 1900, and Hurricane Fifi of 1974, which primarily affected Honduras.

The 905 mb minimum central pressure and estimated maximum sustained wind speed of 155 knots over the western Caribbean make Mitch the strongest October hurricane (records began in 1886). Mitch moved across the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Florida as a tropical storm.

a. Synoptic History

The origins of Mitch can be traced back to a tropical wave that moved across the southern portion of west Africa on 8/9 October. Rawinsonde data from Abidjan, Cote D' Ivorie, ocated about 980 n mi southeast of Dakar, suggests that the wave had passed through the region around 8 October. The wave crossed the west coast of Africa, generally south of 15 North, on 10 October. The wave progressed across the tropical Atlantic for the next seven days with west-southwesterly upper-level winds preventing significant development.

After moving through the eastern Caribbean Sea on the 18^th and 19^th, satellite pictures showed an organizing cloud pattern over the south-central Caribbean Sea on the 20^th. Shower and thunderstorm activity continued to become better organized in the southwest Caribbean Sea early on the 21^st. Subsequently, a U.S. Air Force Reserve (USAFR) reconnaissance aircraft was dispatched to investigate the disturbance that afternoon and found winds of 39 knots at the 1500-foot flight level, and a central pressure of 1001 mb. On this basis, the system became a tropical depression at 0000 UTC 22 October, about 360 n mi south of Kingston, Jamaica . The depression moved slowly westward and strengthened to a tropical storm later that day, about 225 n mi east-southeast of San Andres Island, while moving in a cyclonic loop. By the 23^rd, the intensification of Mitch was disrupted by westerly vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level low north-northwest of the tropical cyclone. Later on the 23^th, the upper low weakened, the shear diminished, and Mitch began to strengthen while moving slowly northward.

Mitch became a hurricane at 0600 UTC 24 October while located about 255 n mi south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Later that day, as it turned toward the west, Mitch began a period of rapid intensification. During a 24 hour period beginning on the afternoon of the 24^th, its central pressure dropped 52 mb, to 924 mb. With a symmetric, well-established upper-tropospheric outflow pattern evident on satellite imagery, the hurricane continued to strengthen. On the afternoon of the 26^th, the central pressure reached a minimum of 905 mb, while the cyclone was centered about 50 n mi southeast of Swan Island. This pressure is the fourth lowest ever measured in an Atlantic hurricane, tied with Hurricane Camille in 1969. This is also the lowest pressure ever observed in an October hurricane in the Atlantic basin. Prior to Mitch, the strongest measured October hurricane in the northwest Caribbean was Hurricane Hattie in 1961 with a central pressure of 924 mb. At its peak on the 26^th, Mitch's maximum sustained 1-minute surface winds were estimated to be 155 knots, a category five hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale.

After passing over Swan Island on the 27 October, Mitch began to gradually weaken while moving slowly westward. It then turned southwestward and southward toward the Bay Islands off the coast of Honduras. The center passed very near the island of Guanaja as a category four hurricane. Mitch slowly weakened as its circulation interacted with the land mass of Honduras.

From mid-day on the 27^th, to early on the 29^th,the central pressure rose 59 mb. The center of the hurricane meandered near the north coast of Honduras from late on the 27^th through the 28^th, before making landfall during the morning of the 29^th about 70 n mi east of la Ceiba with estimated surface winds of 85 knots and a minimum central pressure of 987 mb.

After making landfall, Mitch moved slowly southward, then southwestward and westward, over Honduras, weakening to a tropical storm by 0600 UTC 30 October, and to a tropical depression by 1800 UTC 31 October.

The overall motion was slow, less than 4 knots, for a week. This resulted in a tremendous amount of rainfall, estimated at up to 35 inches, primarily over Honduras and Nicaragua -- see Table 2. The heavy rainfall resulted in flash floods and mudslides that killed thousands of people. It is noted that a large east-west mountain range, with peaks approaching 10,000 feet, covers this part of Central America and this terrain likely contributed to the large rainfall totals. Some heavy rains also occurred in other portions of Central America.

Although Mitch's surface circulation center dissipated near the Guatemala/Mexico border on 1 November, the remnant circulation aloft continued to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and eastern Mexico for the next couple of days.

By the afternoon of 2 November, meteorologists at the Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), and the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service began to follow a cloud-system center, the remnants of Mitch, in satellite imagery over the Bay of Campeche. Shower and thunderstorm activity began to increase later on the 2^nd. On 3 November, a low-level circulation became evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A USAFR aircraft sent to investigate the system later that afternoon found 45 knot winds at 1500 feet and a minimum central pressure of 997 mb. Thus, advisories were re-initiated on Tropical Storm Mitch located about 130 n mi southwest of Merida, Mexico. Mitch moved northeastward and weakened to a depression early on the 4^th after it made landfall over the northwestern Yucatan peninsula. The center re-emerged over the south-central Gulf of Mexico by mid-morning on the 4^th, and Mitch regained tropical storm strength. The storm began to accelerate northeastward as it became involved with a frontal zone moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mitch made landfall on the morning of 5 November in southwest Florida near Naples, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 55 knots. Mitch continued to move rapidly northeastward and by mid-afternoon of the 5^th, moved offshore of southeastern Florida and became extratropical. The extratropical cyclone accelerated northeastward across the North Atlantic Ocean from the 6^th through the 9^th.

b. Meteorological Statistics

The best-track intensities in Table 1 depict the curves of minimum central sea-level pressure and maximum sustained one-minute average "surface" (10 meters above ground level) wind speed, respectively, as a function of time. The data these curves are based on, also plotted in the figures, include USAFR and NOAA aircraft reconnaissance data, Dvorak-based intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFGWC in figures).

Most of the aerial reconnaissance flights into Mitch were by the USAFR "Hurricane Hunters". The Hurricane Hunters flew 19 missions, and made 41 center fixes while NOAA aircraft performed 2 missions contributing 9 center fixes. The highest 700-mb flight-level wind report was 168 knots at 1900 UTC 26 October by the USAFR. This wind speed was observed 14 n mi northeast of the center near the time of a 905 mb GPS dropsonde-measured pressure. A dropsonde in the northeast eyewall showed winds to near 160 knots at 900 mb, but lower speeds below that altitude. The highest satellite-based intensity estimate, obtained by both objective and subjective methods, was 155 knots on the 26^th and the 27^th.

Table 2 lists rainfall observations from Honduras, with a maximum of 35.89 inches from Choluteca. Even higher values may have gone unobserved. Table 3 lists selected surface observations from Florida, where the highest observed sustained wind speed was 52 knots, at an elevation of 43.9 meters, from the Fowey Rock C-MAN station just offshore of Miami. Significant ship reports are listed in Table 4.

Five tornadoes were spawned by Mitch in South Florida: two in the Florida Keys, one each in Broward, Palm Beach, and Collier Counties. The most significant of these (F2 intensity) occurred in the upper Florida Keys, Islamorada to North Key Largo.

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

The estimated death toll from Mitch currently stands at 9,086. Fact Sheet #21 from the U.S. Agency for International Development (Table 6), as of December 1998, compiled the following death totals: Honduras, 5677; Nicaragua, 2,863; Guatemala, 258; El Salvador; 239; Mexico, 9 and 7 in Costa Rica. The death toll also includes 31 fatalities associated with the schooner Fantome. In addition, another 9191 persons were listed as missing. The exact death toll will probably never be known. However, this was one of the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclones in history, ranking below only the 1780 "Great Hurricane" in the lesser Antilles, and comparable to the Galveston hurricane of 1900, and Hurricane Fifi of 1974, the latter also striking Honduras.

Mitch also claimed two lives in Monroe County, Florida. Both deaths were drowning-related incidents resulting from a fishing boat capsizing.

It has been estimated that there was a 50 percent loss to Honduras' agricultural crops. At least 70,000 houses were damaged and more than 92 bridges were damaged or destroyed. There was severe damage to the infrastructure of Honduras and entire communities were isolated from outside assistance. To a lesser extent, damage was similar in Nicaragua, where a large mudslide inundated ten communities situated at the base of La Casitas Volcano. Guatemala and El Salvador also suffered from flash floods which destroyed thousands of homes, along with bridges and roads.

The Florida tornadoes injured 65 people and damaged or destroyed 645 homes.

Insured property damage supplied by the Florida insurance Council puts the insured damage estimate for Florida at $20 million. These estimates exclude storm surge damage. To determine the total estimated damage, a ratio of 2:1 is applied to the insured property damage; this is based on comparisons done in historical hurricanes. Thus, the U.S. total estimated damage from Mitch is $40 million.

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Table 5 lists the various watches and warnings issued. Hurricane warnings were issued for Jamaica, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. A tropical storm warning was issued for the Cayman Islands, the Gulf of Mexico coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba, and South Florida and the Florida Keys. As the effects of Mitch on Nicaragua were confined to rainfall flooding, there were no hurricane warnings there.

The average official track forecast errors for Mitch were 39, 80, 125, 167, and 237 n mi for the 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 72-hr forecast periods, respectively - see Table 7. The number of forecasts ranged from 41 at the 12-hr period to 28 at the 72-hr period. The average track errors are quite similar to the average official forecast for the previous ten years. The official forecasts show that there was a persistent northwest bias to these forecasts. The official track forecast was for a slow mostly northwestward motion for the many days that the hurricane was in the northwestern Caribbean as suggested models. Mitch actually moved westward and then southward and the forecast turn toward the northwest did not take place until the hurricane had moved over Honduras and Nicaragua. Some of the most reliable guidance models also had this track bias. In retrospect, the slow southward, then southwestward, motion which began early on the 27^th, was likely due to a weak mid-level anticyclone over the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the absence of rawinsonde data from Mexico and Central America likely hindered the track prediction models and forecasters from resolving this feature during the event.

The average absolute official wind speed forecast errors ranged from 9 knots at 12-hr to 35 knots at 72-hr - see Table 8. These are somewhat larger than the previous ten-year averages. Also, there were under-forecasts as large as 75 knots for the 72-hr forecast verifying at 1800 UTC on the 26^th, which is the time of the estimated peak surface wind of 155 knots. Overall, the official intensity forecasts indicated a general strengthening trend between the 24^th and the 26^th.

Acknowledgments:

The authors are appreciative to the National Weather Service Offices in Melbourne, Tampa, and Miami, Florida for their post-storm reports and related data. Rainfall data from Honduras was provided by the Honduras Weather Service. The U.S. damage estimate data was supplied by the Florida Insurance Council. Steve Baig produced the best track map insert. The authors wish to thank Lixion Avila, Jack Beven, Jerry Jarrell, Max Mayfield, Richard Pasch, and Ed Rappaport for reviewing this document and making numerous suggestions which helped improve the report.

Table 1. Preliminary Best Track - Hurricane Mitch, 22 October - 09 November 1998.
Date/Time
(UTC) Position Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage
Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W)

22/0000 11.6 76.1 1002 30 Tropical Depression

0600 11.9 77.1 1002 30 "

1200 12.0 77.9 1002 30 "

1800 11.6 77.9 1001 35 Tropical Storm

23/0000 11.8 77.6 1000 40 "

0600 12.2 77.6 999 45 "

1200 12.5 77.8 999 45 "

1800 12.9 78.0 998 50 "

24/0000 13.4 77.9 997 55 "

0600 13.9 77.8 990 65 Hurricane

1200 14.5 77.9 985 75 "

1800 15.0 78.1 980 90 "

25/0000 15.5 78.4 965 100 "

0600 16.0 78.9 951 105 "

1200 16.2 79.6 945 115 "

1800 16.4 80.3 926 125 "

26/0000 16.4 81.0 923 130 "

0600 16.4 81.8 922 135 "

1200 16.6 82.6 914 145 "

1800 16.9 83.1 905 155 "

27/0000 17.2 83.8 910 155 "

0600 17.3 84.4 917 150 "

1200 17.1 85.0 922 150 "

1800 16.9 85.4 928 145 "

28/0000 16.6 85.6 933 140 "

0600 16.3 85.6 938 130 "

1200 16.3 85.6 948 115 "

1800 16.3 85.7 959 95 "

29/0000 16.2 85.8 970 85 "

0600 16.1 85.8 979 75 "

1200 15.9 85.7 987 70 "

1800 15.8 85.6 994 60 Tropical Storm

30/0000 15.6 85.7 995 55 "

0600 15.4 85.9 996 50 "

30/1200 15.2 86.1 997 45 Tropical Storm

1800 14.9 86.5 998 45 "

31/0000 14.7 87.0 999 45 "

0600 14.5 87.7 1000 40 "

1200 14.5 88.5 1000 35 "

1800 14.6 89.2 1001 30 Tropical Depression

01/0000 14.6 90.0 1002 30 "

0600 14.7 90.8 1003 25 "

1200 14.9 91.5 1005 25 "

1800 15.5 92.2 1005 25 Tropical Depression

02/0000 16.3 92.7 1005 20 Low

0600 17.1 93.1 1005 20 Low

1200 17.9 93.4 1005 20 Low

1800 18.7 93.7 1005 20 Low

03/0000 19.2 93.4 1003 20 Low

0600 19.3 92.7 1003 20 Low

1200 19.4 92.1 1002 25 Low

1800 19.6 91.4 997 40 Tropical Storm

04/0000 20.0 90.6 997 35 "

0600 20.8 89.6 998 30 Tropical Depression

1200 21.8 88.2 998 40 Tropical Storm

1800 23.3 86.5 993 40 "

05/0000 24.8 84.8 993 45 "

0600 25.6 83.1 990 50 "

1200 26.6 81.3 987 55 "

1800 27.5 78.3 992 50 Extratropical

06/0000 30.0 75.0 993 50 "

0600 32.5 72.0 992 50 "

1200 35.0 68.0 990 50 "

1800 37.0 63.0 989 50 "

07/0000 39.0 58.0 990 50 "

0600 41.0 53.0 992 50 "

1200 42.5 47.5 986 50 "

07/1800 44.5 42.0 972 60 "

08/0000 46.5 36.5 974 60 "

0600 48.5 31.0 972 60 "

1200 50.0 25.0 962 60 "

1800 53.5 20.5 956 60 "

09/0000 55.5 14.5 956 60 "

0600 58.0 10.5 956 60 "

1200 61.0 10.0 956 60 Extratropical

1800 63.5 5.0 960 55 "

26/1800 16.9 83.1 905 155 Minimum Pressure

Landfalls

29/1200 15.9 85.7 987 70 Honduras
72 n mi E of La Ceiba

04/0200 20.1 90.5 998 35 Mexico
15 n mi NNE of Campeche

05/1100 26.2 81.9 989 55 USA
5 n mi W of Naples, Florida

Table 1. Preliminary Best Track - Hurricane Mitch, 22 October - 09 November 1998.
Date/Time (UTC)	Position	Pressure (mb)	Wind Speed (kt)	Stage
Lat. (°N)	Lon. (°W)
22/0000	11.6	76.1	1002	30	Tropical Depression
0600	11.9	77.1	1002	30	"
1200	12.0	77.9	1002	30	"
1800	11.6	77.9	1001	35	Tropical Storm
23/0000	11.8	77.6	1000	40	"
0600	12.2	77.6	999	45	"
1200	12.5	77.8	999	45	"
1800	12.9	78.0	998	50	"
24/0000	13.4	77.9	997	55	"
0600	13.9	77.8	990	65	Hurricane
1200	14.5	77.9	985	75	"
1800	15.0	78.1	980	90	"
25/0000	15.5	78.4	965	100	"
0600	16.0	78.9	951	105	"
1200	16.2	79.6	945	115	"
1800	16.4	80.3	926	125	"
26/0000	16.4	81.0	923	130	"
0600	16.4	81.8	922	135	"
1200	16.6	82.6	914	145	"
1800	16.9	83.1	905	155	"
27/0000	17.2	83.8	910	155	"
0600	17.3	84.4	917	150	"
1200	17.1	85.0	922	150	"
1800	16.9	85.4	928	145	"
28/0000	16.6	85.6	933	140	"
0600	16.3	85.6	938	130	"
1200	16.3	85.6	948	115	"
1800	16.3	85.7	959	95	"
29/0000	16.2	85.8	970	85	"
0600	16.1	85.8	979	75	"
1200	15.9	85.7	987	70	"
1800	15.8	85.6	994	60	Tropical Storm
30/0000	15.6	85.7	995	55	"
0600	15.4	85.9	996	50	"
30/1200	15.2	86.1	997	45	Tropical Storm
1800	14.9	86.5	998	45	"
31/0000	14.7	87.0	999	45	"
0600	14.5	87.7	1000	40	"
1200	14.5	88.5	1000	35	"
1800	14.6	89.2	1001	30	Tropical Depression
01/0000	14.6	90.0	1002	30	"
0600	14.7	90.8	1003	25	"
1200	14.9	91.5	1005	25	"
1800	15.5	92.2	1005	25	Tropical Depression
02/0000	16.3	92.7	1005	20	Low
0600	17.1	93.1	1005	20	Low
1200	17.9	93.4	1005	20	Low
1800	18.7	93.7	1005	20	Low
03/0000	19.2	93.4	1003	20	Low
0600	19.3	92.7	1003	20	Low
1200	19.4	92.1	1002	25	Low
1800	19.6	91.4	997	40	Tropical Storm
04/0000	20.0	90.6	997	35	"
0600	20.8	89.6	998	30	Tropical Depression
1200	21.8	88.2	998	40	Tropical Storm
1800	23.3	86.5	993	40	"
05/0000	24.8	84.8	993	45	"
0600	25.6	83.1	990	50	"
1200	26.6	81.3	987	55	"
1800	27.5	78.3	992	50	Extratropical
06/0000	30.0	75.0	993	50	"
0600	32.5	72.0	992	50	"
1200	35.0	68.0	990	50	"
1800	37.0	63.0	989	50	"
07/0000	39.0	58.0	990	50	"
0600	41.0	53.0	992	50	"
1200	42.5	47.5	986	50	"
07/1800	44.5	42.0	972	60	"
08/0000	46.5	36.5	974	60	"
0600	48.5	31.0	972	60	"
1200	50.0	25.0	962	60	"
1800	53.5	20.5	956	60	"
09/0000	55.5	14.5	956	60	"
0600	58.0	10.5	956	60	"
1200	61.0	10.0	956	60	Extratropical
1800	63.5	5.0	960	55	"
26/1800	16.9	83.1	905	155	Minimum Pressure
Landfalls
29/1200	15.9	85.7	987	70	Honduras 72 n mi E of La Ceiba
04/0200	20.1	90.5	998	35	Mexico 15 n mi NNE of Campeche
05/1100	26.2	81.9	989	55	USA 5 n mi W of Naples, Florida

Table 2. Hurricane Mitch selected Honduras rainfall totals, 25-31 October 1998.
Location Rainfall Total
(in) Maximum 1-Day Total Date

Choluteca 35.89 18.37 10/31

La Ceiba 34.52 11.19 10/27

Balfate 26.43 10.24 10/26

Tela 22.26 6.73 10/28

Yoro 20.49 9.28 10/28

Orica 17.89 4.35 10/30

Santa Lucia 15.18 5.48 10/30

Sabana Grande 14.53 7.33 10/30

Lepaguare 13.19 3.55 10/26

Amapala 12.38 10.24 10/31

Colonia 21 De Octubre 11.85 6.31 10/31

Santa Barbara 11.81 3.96 10/30

Unah (Tegucigalpa) 11.58 5.09 10/30

Moroceli 10.65 7.48 10/31

Roatan 10.65 3.68 10/27

La Mesa 10.55^* 5.87 10/28

Catacamas 10.13 3.95 10/30

Gracias 10.05 3.23 10/25

Table 2. Hurricane Mitch selected Honduras rainfall totals, 25-31 October 1998.
Location	Rainfall Total (in)	Maximum 1-Day Total	Date
Choluteca	35.89	18.37	10/31
La Ceiba	34.52	11.19	10/27
Balfate	26.43	10.24	10/26
Tela	22.26	6.73	10/28
Yoro	20.49	9.28	10/28
Orica	17.89	4.35	10/30
Santa Lucia	15.18	5.48	10/30
Sabana Grande	14.53	7.33	10/30
Lepaguare	13.19	3.55	10/26
Amapala	12.38	10.24	10/31
Colonia 21 De Octubre	11.85	6.31	10/31
Santa Barbara	11.81	3.96	10/30
Unah (Tegucigalpa)	11.58	5.09	10/30
Moroceli	10.65	7.48	10/31
Roatan	10.65	3.68	10/27
La Mesa	10.55^*	5.87	10/28
Catacamas	10.13	3.95	10/30
Gracias	10.05	3.23	10/25

^* - No data available 10/30-31; a higher amount could have occurred.

Table 3. Hurricane Mitch selected surface observations, November 1998.
Minimum
sea-level
pressure Maximum surface wind speed
(kt)

Location Pressure
(mb) Date/time
(UTC) Sustained
wind
(kts) ^a Peak
gust (kts) Date/time^b
(UTC) Storm
surge^c
(ft) Storm
tide^d
(ft) Rain
(storm total)
(in)

Florida

Key West Airport 995.7 05/0853 35 48 05/0653 2.11

Boca Chica NAS 996.6 05/0855 25 38 05/0855

Marathon 997.2 05/1053 18 30 05/1104

Homestead 3.12

Homestead AFB 995.9 05/1158 20 35 05/1229

Tamiami Airport 995.1 05/1153 20 33 05/1153 3.58

Miami Int. Airport 994.1 05/1356 20 38 05/1042 5.88

Opa Locka Airport 993.9 05/1353 28 38 05/1153

Hollywood 3.29

Ft. Lauderdale 6.62

Ft. Lauderdale Beach 3.88

Ft. Lauderdale Int. 993.8 05/1353 29 36 05/1120

Ft. Lauderdale Exec. 993.8 05/1353 25 34 05/1830

Pompano Beack Airport 993.7 05/1353 28 39 05/0408

West Palm Beach 6.70

West Palm Beach 994.7 05/1153 25 34 05/1658

Naples 1.42

Naples Airport 991.2 05/1115 18 27 05/1246

Miami Beach 26 40 05/1248 3.15

Flamingo 33 39 05/0948

Virginia Key 995.0 05/1352 26 37 05/1252

Lower Keys 2-4^e

Collier County <1^e

Miami-Dade County <1^e

Broward County 1-2^e

Vero Beach 996.6 05/1321 25 42 05/13219 4.14

Vero Beach FAA Tower 5.45

Cape Canaveral (KTTS) 1000.7 05/1358 22 39 05/1705 3^e

Patrick AFB (KCOF) 999.0 05/1355 27 37 05/1735

Melbourne Airport (KMLB) 998.3 05/1350 20 30 05/1150 4.54

Melbourne NWS 4.95

Titusville (KTIX) 1002.0 05/1358 25 35 05/1758

Fort Pierce 994.6 05/1255 20 29 05/1400 5.36

Orlando Int. 1001.5 05/1253 23 29 05/1714 1.58

Stuart (KSUA) 995.3 05/1230

Jupiter/Tequesta 1003.2 7.00

Port Myaca 997.9 6.48

Stuart 995.2 6.10

Fort Pierce 996.2 5.33

Okeechobee 998.9 4.17

St. Petersburg (KPIE) 1001.8 05/0953 20 25 05/0953 1.22

St. Petersburg (KSPG) 1000.9 05/1053 21 27 05/0945

St. Petersburg Pier 30 35 05/1300

Tampa Airport (KTPA) 1001.5 05/1056 14 23 05/1156 0.47

MacDill AFB (KMCF) 1001.5 05/1059 12 22 05/1331 1.34

Tampa Old Port 24 29 05/1254

Ruskin (KTBW) 1.94

Sunshine Skyway 29 34 05/1054

Winter Haven (KGIF) 1001.2 05/1053 16 23 05/1153 0.84

Lakeland (KLAL) 1001.4 05/1054 13 20 05/1152 1.94

Sarasota Airport (KSRQ) 1000.0 05/1050 15 25 05/1350 1.75

Arcadia 4.76

Punta Gorda (KPGD) 997.3 05/0944 25 33 05/0944 3.88

Fort Myers (KFMY) 994.6 05/1017 21 31 05/1238 6.05

Fort Myers Reg. S.W. 993.6 05/1018 27 33 05/1018

Table 3. Hurricane Mitch selected surface observations, November 1998.
	Minimum sea-level pressure	Maximum surface wind speed (kt)
Location	Pressure (mb)	Date/time (UTC)	Sustained wind (kts) ^a	Peak gust (kts)	Date/time^b (UTC)	Storm surge^c (ft)	Storm tide^d (ft)	Rain (storm total) (in)
Florida
Key West Airport	995.7	05/0853	35	48	05/0653			2.11
Boca Chica NAS	996.6	05/0855	25	38	05/0855
Marathon	997.2	05/1053	18	30	05/1104
Homestead								3.12
Homestead AFB	995.9	05/1158	20	35	05/1229
Tamiami Airport	995.1	05/1153	20	33	05/1153			3.58
Miami Int. Airport	994.1	05/1356	20	38	05/1042			5.88
Opa Locka Airport	993.9	05/1353	28	38	05/1153
Hollywood								3.29
Ft. Lauderdale								6.62
Ft. Lauderdale Beach								3.88
Ft. Lauderdale Int.	993.8	05/1353	29	36	05/1120
Ft. Lauderdale Exec.	993.8	05/1353	25	34	05/1830
Pompano Beack Airport	993.7	05/1353	28	39	05/0408
West Palm Beach								6.70
West Palm Beach	994.7	05/1153	25	34	05/1658
Naples								1.42
Naples Airport	991.2	05/1115	18	27	05/1246
Miami Beach			26	40	05/1248			3.15
Flamingo			33	39	05/0948
Virginia Key	995.0	05/1352	26	37	05/1252
Lower Keys							2-4^e
Collier County							<1^e
Miami-Dade County							<1^e
Broward County							1-2^e
Vero Beach	996.6	05/1321	25	42	05/13219			4.14
Vero Beach FAA Tower								5.45
Cape Canaveral (KTTS)	1000.7	05/1358	22	39	05/1705	3^e
Patrick AFB (KCOF)	999.0	05/1355	27	37	05/1735
Melbourne Airport (KMLB)	998.3	05/1350	20	30	05/1150			4.54
Melbourne NWS								4.95
Titusville (KTIX)	1002.0	05/1358	25	35	05/1758
Fort Pierce	994.6	05/1255	20	29	05/1400			5.36
Orlando Int.	1001.5	05/1253	23	29	05/1714			1.58
Stuart (KSUA)	995.3	05/1230
Jupiter/Tequesta	1003.2							7.00
Port Myaca	997.9							6.48
Stuart	995.2							6.10
Fort Pierce	996.2							5.33
Okeechobee	998.9							4.17
St. Petersburg (KPIE)	1001.8	05/0953	20	25	05/0953			1.22
St. Petersburg (KSPG)	1000.9	05/1053	21	27	05/0945
St. Petersburg Pier			30	35	05/1300
Tampa Airport (KTPA)	1001.5	05/1056	14	23	05/1156			0.47
MacDill AFB (KMCF)	1001.5	05/1059	12	22	05/1331			1.34
Tampa Old Port			24	29	05/1254
Ruskin (KTBW)								1.94
Sunshine Skyway			29	34	05/1054
Winter Haven (KGIF)	1001.2	05/1053	16	23	05/1153			0.84
Lakeland (KLAL)	1001.4	05/1054	13	20	05/1152			1.94
Sarasota Airport (KSRQ)	1000.0	05/1050	15	25	05/1350			1.75
Arcadia								4.76
Punta Gorda (KPGD)	997.3	05/0944	25	33	05/0944			3.88
Fort Myers (KFMY)	994.6	05/1017	21	31	05/1238			6.05
Fort Myers Reg. S.W.	993.6	05/1018	27	33	05/1018

^aStandard NWS ASOS and C-MAN on-hour averaging periods are 2 min; buoys are 8 min.

^bDate/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.

^cStorm surge is water height above normal astronomical tide level.

^dStorm tide is water height above NGVD.

^eEstimated.

Table 4. Hurricane Mitch selected National Buoy Data Center (NBDC) observations, 21 October - 05 November 1998.
Location Press.
(mb) Date/time
(UTC) Sustained wind
(kts)^a Peak gust
(kts) Date/ time
(UTC)^b Significant Wave Height
(ft)

CMAN Stations

Lake Worth, FL (LKWF1) 994.1 05/1300 36 42 05/1200

Fowey Rocks, FL (FWYF1) 995.9 05/1400 52 63 05/1300

Molasses Reef, FL (MLRF1) 997.1 05/1200 41 45 05/1100

Long Key, FL (LONF1) 996.9 05/1100 32 39 05/0900

Sombrero Key, FL (SMKF1) 997.2 05/1100 41 46 05/0800

Sand Key, FL (SAND1) 995.9 05/0700 39 43 05/0700

Dry Tortugas, FL (DRYF1) 993.4 05/0500 41 47 05/0500

NOAA/NDBC Buoys

42003 (25.9N 85.9W) 1001.4 05/0500 37 44 04/2350 14.6

41010 (28.9N 78.5W) 995.4 05/2000 37 45 05/1800 13.7

Ship Reports of 34 kt or Higher Winds

PFRO (14.4N 77.0W) 1010.2 22/1200 37 22/1200 2.0

ZCBN5 (11.8N 78.3W) 1006.0 23/2100 38 23/2100 2.0

ZCBN5 (12.5N 77.6W) 1005.2 24/0000 37 24/0000 2.0

ZCBN5 (13.4N 77.1W) 1005.3 24/0300 40 24/0300 MM

ZCBN5 (14.2N 76.7W) 1006.1 24/0600 39 24/0600 MM

PEXV (19.7N 81.3W) 1009.1 25/2100 43 25/2100 2.0

PDWT (20.2N 84.3W) 1008.0 27/0000 37 27/0000 3.0

KGDF (21.5N 76.5W) 1012.0 27/0000 35 27/0000 3.0

3FKZ3 (22.1N 73.1W) 1016.0 27/0000 36 27/0000 3.0

PDWT (20.4N 83.9W) 1009.5 27/0300 39 27/0300 7.0

PDWT (20.6N 83.5W) 1009.5 27/0600 39 27/0600 MM

PDWT (20.7N 83.0W) 1009.0 27/0900 45 27/0900 MM

PJAG (19.6N 85.5W) 1011.0 27/1200 39 27/1200 2.0

PDWT (20.8N 82.5W) 1012.0 27/1200 37 27/1200 4.0

ELRU3 (21.1N 85.5W) 1010.0 27/1200 37 27/1200 MM

C6YC (21.3N 85.5W) 1010.0 27/1800 40 27/1800 2.0

C6YC (20.9N 82.6W) 1009.5 27/2100 45 27/2100 3.0

C6KU7 (18.6N 86.6W) 1005.1 28/1200 40 28/1200 3.0

PJAG (14.4N 77.3W) 1010.0 31/1200 35 31/1200 2.0

C6YE (17.7N 87.2W) 1008.0 31/1200 38 31/1200 3.0

C6HH3 (16.2N 87.6W) 1007.8 31/1500 54 31/1500 MM

WLDF (23.9N 86.9W) 1003.7 04/0600 40 04/0600 4.0

3FKZ3 (20.3N 85.4W) 999.0 04/1200 48 04/1200 MM

WLDF (24.7N 84.9W) 1003.0 04/1200 39 04/1200 2.0

3FKZ3 (20.0N 84.9W) 1000.0 04/1500 48 04/1500 5.0

3FKZ3 (19.5N 82.8W) 1001.0 05/0000 36 05/0000 4.0

ELFT8 (22.3N 86.6W) 998.0 05/0000 38 05/0000 2.0

C6KY3 (22.7N 86.3W) 997.0 05/0300 40 05/0300 3.0

SHIP (25.1N 85.2W) 1000.5 05/0600 36 05/0600 6.0

KXDB (24.9N 80.3W) 996.1 05/1200 45 05/1200 3.0

C6KU7 (25.9N 77.5W) 1000.0 05/1500 35 05/1500 3.0

3EZK9 (25.1N 77.5W) 1001.0 05/1800 37 05/1800 10.0

ELUA5 (26.0N 75.4W) 1000.0 05/1800 38 05/1800 4.0

Table 4. Hurricane Mitch selected National Buoy Data Center (NBDC) observations, 21 October - 05 November 1998.
Location	Press. (mb)	Date/time (UTC)	Sustained wind (kts)^a	Peak gust (kts)	Date/ time (UTC)^b	Significant Wave Height (ft)
CMAN Stations
Lake Worth, FL (LKWF1)	994.1	05/1300	36	42	05/1200
Fowey Rocks, FL (FWYF1)	995.9	05/1400	52	63	05/1300
Molasses Reef, FL (MLRF1)	997.1	05/1200	41	45	05/1100
Long Key, FL (LONF1)	996.9	05/1100	32	39	05/0900
Sombrero Key, FL (SMKF1)	997.2	05/1100	41	46	05/0800
Sand Key, FL (SAND1)	995.9	05/0700	39	43	05/0700
Dry Tortugas, FL (DRYF1)	993.4	05/0500	41	47	05/0500
NOAA/NDBC Buoys
42003 (25.9N 85.9W)	1001.4	05/0500	37	44	04/2350	14.6
41010 (28.9N 78.5W)	995.4	05/2000	37	45	05/1800	13.7
Ship Reports of 34 kt or Higher Winds
PFRO (14.4N 77.0W)	1010.2	22/1200	37		22/1200	2.0
ZCBN5 (11.8N 78.3W)	1006.0	23/2100	38		23/2100	2.0
ZCBN5 (12.5N 77.6W)	1005.2	24/0000	37		24/0000	2.0
ZCBN5 (13.4N 77.1W)	1005.3	24/0300	40		24/0300	MM
ZCBN5 (14.2N 76.7W)	1006.1	24/0600	39		24/0600	MM
PEXV (19.7N 81.3W)	1009.1	25/2100	43		25/2100	2.0
PDWT (20.2N 84.3W)	1008.0	27/0000	37		27/0000	3.0
KGDF (21.5N 76.5W)	1012.0	27/0000	35		27/0000	3.0
3FKZ3 (22.1N 73.1W)	1016.0	27/0000	36		27/0000	3.0
PDWT (20.4N 83.9W)	1009.5	27/0300	39		27/0300	7.0
PDWT (20.6N 83.5W)	1009.5	27/0600	39		27/0600	MM
PDWT (20.7N 83.0W)	1009.0	27/0900	45		27/0900	MM
PJAG (19.6N 85.5W)	1011.0	27/1200	39		27/1200	2.0
PDWT (20.8N 82.5W)	1012.0	27/1200	37		27/1200	4.0
ELRU3 (21.1N 85.5W)	1010.0	27/1200	37		27/1200	MM
C6YC (21.3N 85.5W)	1010.0	27/1800	40		27/1800	2.0
C6YC (20.9N 82.6W)	1009.5	27/2100	45		27/2100	3.0
C6KU7 (18.6N 86.6W)	1005.1	28/1200	40		28/1200	3.0
PJAG (14.4N 77.3W)	1010.0	31/1200	35		31/1200	2.0
C6YE (17.7N 87.2W)	1008.0	31/1200	38		31/1200	3.0
C6HH3 (16.2N 87.6W)	1007.8	31/1500	54		31/1500	MM
WLDF (23.9N 86.9W)	1003.7	04/0600	40		04/0600	4.0
3FKZ3 (20.3N 85.4W)	999.0	04/1200	48		04/1200	MM
WLDF (24.7N 84.9W)	1003.0	04/1200	39		04/1200	2.0
3FKZ3 (20.0N 84.9W)	1000.0	04/1500	48		04/1500	5.0
3FKZ3 (19.5N 82.8W)	1001.0	05/0000	36		05/0000	4.0
ELFT8 (22.3N 86.6W)	998.0	05/0000	38		05/0000	2.0
C6KY3 (22.7N 86.3W)	997.0	05/0300	40		05/0300	3.0
SHIP (25.1N 85.2W)	1000.5	05/0600	36		05/0600	6.0
KXDB (24.9N 80.3W)	996.1	05/1200	45		05/1200	3.0
C6KU7 (25.9N 77.5W)	1000.0	05/1500	35		05/1500	3.0
3EZK9 (25.1N 77.5W)	1001.0	05/1800	37		05/1800	10.0
ELUA5 (26.0N 75.4W)	1000.0	05/1800	38		05/1800	4.0

^a Standard NWS C-MAN averaging period is 2 min; buoys are 8 min.

^b Date/time is for sustained wind when both sustained and gust are listed.

^C Buoy failed shortly after this observation; a lower pressure and a higher wind and wave height may have occurred.

MM - missing data

Table 5. Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Mitch, 21 October - 09 November 1998.
Date/time
(UTC) Action Location

24/1500 Hurricane Watch Issued Jamaica.

24/2100 Hurricane Warning Issued Jamaica.

Hurricane Watch Issued Eastern Cuba...from Camaguey to Guantanamo

25/1200 Hurricane Watch Issued Cayman Islands.

25/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Cayman Islands.

Hurricane Warning Discontinued Jamaica.

26/0000 Hurricane Watch Discontinued Eastern Cuba...from Camaguey to Guantanamo.

26/0300 Hurricane Warning Issued Honduras from Limon eastward to the Nicaragua border...and Swan Island.

26/2100 Hurricane Warning Issued Honduras from Limon to the Guatemala border.

27/0000 Hurricane Watch Issued Belize.

27/0430 Hurricane Watch Issued East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward.

27/0900 Hurricane Warning Issued East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward..and the coast of Guatemala.

27/1200 Hurricane Warning Issued Belize.

27/1800 Hurricane Watch Discontinued...Tropical Storm Warning changed to a Tropical Storm Watch Cayman Islands.

29/0300 Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued Cayman Islands.

29/2100 Hurricane Warning Downgraded to Tropical Storm Warning Caribbean Coast of Honduras/Guatemala/Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward... including the offshore islands.

Hurricane Watch Issued Belize.

30/1500 Hurricane Watch Discontinued Belize.

31/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Caribbean Coast of Honduras..Guatemala..Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward... including the offshore islands.

03/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Issued West coast of Yucatan Peninsula from Progreso southward to Carmen.

04/0900 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued West coast of Yucatan Peninsula from Progreso southward to Carmen.

04/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Florida Keys...and the Florida Peninsula southward from Tarpon Springs on the west coast and southward from New Smyrna Beach on the east coast.

04/1800 Tropical Storm Warning Issued Western Cuba from the province of Matanzas westward including the Isle of Youth.

05/1500 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Florida Keys west of Craig Key...and Florida West Coast from west of Flamingo to Tarpon Springs

05/1800 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Western Cuba from the province of Matanzas westward including the Isle of Youth.

05/2100 Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued Florida Keys east of Craig Key...and Florida East Coast southward from New Smyrna Beach.

Table 5. Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Mitch, 21 October - 09 November 1998.
Date/time (UTC)	Action	Location
24/1500	Hurricane Watch Issued	Jamaica.
24/2100	Hurricane Warning Issued	Jamaica.
Hurricane Watch Issued	Eastern Cuba...from Camaguey to Guantanamo
25/1200	Hurricane Watch Issued	Cayman Islands.
25/2100	Tropical Storm Warning Issued	Cayman Islands.
Hurricane Warning Discontinued	Jamaica.
26/0000	Hurricane Watch Discontinued	Eastern Cuba...from Camaguey to Guantanamo.
26/0300	Hurricane Warning Issued	Honduras from Limon eastward to the Nicaragua border...and Swan Island.
26/2100	Hurricane Warning Issued	Honduras from Limon to the Guatemala border.
27/0000	Hurricane Watch Issued	Belize.
27/0430	Hurricane Watch Issued	East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward.
27/0900	Hurricane Warning Issued	East coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward..and the coast of Guatemala.
27/1200	Hurricane Warning Issued	Belize.
27/1800	Hurricane Watch Discontinued...Tropical Storm Warning changed to a Tropical Storm Watch	Cayman Islands.
29/0300	Tropical Storm Watch Discontinued	Cayman Islands.
29/2100	Hurricane Warning Downgraded to Tropical Storm Warning	Caribbean Coast of Honduras/Guatemala/Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward... including the offshore islands.
Hurricane Watch Issued	Belize.
30/1500	Hurricane Watch Discontinued	Belize.
31/1500	Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued	Caribbean Coast of Honduras..Guatemala..Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward... including the offshore islands.
03/2100	Tropical Storm Warning Issued	West coast of Yucatan Peninsula from Progreso southward to Carmen.
04/0900	Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued	West coast of Yucatan Peninsula from Progreso southward to Carmen.
04/1500	Tropical Storm Warning Issued	Florida Keys...and the Florida Peninsula southward from Tarpon Springs on the west coast and southward from New Smyrna Beach on the east coast.
04/1800	Tropical Storm Warning Issued	Western Cuba from the province of Matanzas westward including the Isle of Youth.
05/1500	Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued	Florida Keys west of Craig Key...and Florida West Coast from west of Flamingo to Tarpon Springs
05/1800	Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued	Western Cuba from the province of Matanzas westward including the Isle of Youth.
05/2100	Tropical Storm Warning Discontinued	Florida Keys east of Craig Key...and Florida East Coast southward from New Smyrna Beach.

Table 6. Deaths estimates associated with Hurricane Mitch. Death figures based on Fact Sheet #21 from the U.S. Agency for International Development.
LOCATION DEATHS^*

Honduras 5677

Nicaragua 2863

Guatemala 258

El Salavador 239

Mexico 9

Costa Rica 7

United States 2

Offshore - Crew from Ship Fantome 31

Storm Total 9086

Table 6. Deaths estimates associated with Hurricane Mitch. Death figures based on Fact Sheet #21 from the U.S. Agency for International Development.
LOCATION	DEATHS^*
Honduras	5677
Nicaragua	2863
Guatemala	258
El Salavador	239
Mexico	9
Costa Rica	7
United States	2
Offshore - Crew from Ship Fantome	31
Storm Total	9086

^* - These are the best estimates received to-date; subject to revision at a later time.

Table 7.
Preliminary forecast evaluation of Hurricane Mitch: Heterogeneous sample.
Errors in nautical miles for tropical storm and hurricane stages with number of forecasts in parenthesis. Numbers in bold italics represent average errors which were smaller than the official forecast.
Forecast Technique Period (hours)

12 24 36 48 72

CLIP 49 (41) 115 (40) 208 (38) 323 (36) 604 (32)

GFDI 44 (39) 96 (38) 146 (35) 181 (31) 230 (26)

GFDL^** 39 (38) 71 (36) 116 (34) 140 (30) 228 (26)

LBAR 42 (41) 88 (40) 138 (38) 179 (33) 246 (25)

AVNI 59 (41) 113 (40) 166 (38) 217 (36) 300 (32)

AVNO^** 57 (39) 103 (38) 153 (36) 198 (34) 277 (30)

BAMD 51 (41) 104 (40) 162 (38) 219 (36) 345 (32)

BAMM 60 (41) 106 (40) 157 (38) 202 (36) 297 (32)

BAMS 83 (41) 156 (40) 232 (38) 308 (36) 460 (32)

NGPI 46 (40) 67 (38) 98 (32) 134 (28) 170 (24)

NGPS^** 47 (21) 70 (20) 98 (17) 130 (15) 191 (13)

UKMI 52 (40) 88 (38) 118 (36) 153 (34) 230 (30)

UKM^** 52 (21) 87 (20) 116 (19) 144 (18) 200 (16)

A90E 46 (41) 96 (40) 141 (38) 188 (36) 385 (32)

A98E 46 (41) 95 (40) 140 (38) 197 (36) 424 (32)

A9UK 52 (19) 104 (18) 157 (18) 213 (18) 449 (16)

EMX 61 (9) 122 (7) 150 (6)

NHC Official 39 (41) 80 (40) 125 (38) 167 (35) 237 (28)

NHC Official 10-Year Average
(1988-1997) 47 (1838) 88 (1633) 127 (1449) 165 (1284) 248 (1006)

Table 7.
Preliminary forecast evaluation of Hurricane Mitch: Heterogeneous sample.
Errors in nautical miles for tropical storm and hurricane stages with number of forecasts in parenthesis. Numbers in bold italics represent average errors which were smaller than the official forecast.
Forecast Technique	Period (hours)
12	24	36	48	72
CLIP	49 (41)	115 (40)	208 (38)	323 (36)	604 (32)
GFDI	44 (39)	96 (38)	146 (35)	181 (31)	*230* (26)
GFDL^**	39 (38)	71 (36)	*116* (34)	*140* (30)	*228* (26)
LBAR	42 (41)	88 (40)	138 (38)	179 (33)	246 (25)
AVNI	59 (41)	113 (40)	166 (38)	217 (36)	300 (32)
AVNO^**	57 (39)	103 (38)	153 (36)	198 (34)	277 (30)
BAMD	51 (41)	104 (40)	162 (38)	219 (36)	345 (32)
BAMM	60 (41)	106 (40)	157 (38)	202 (36)	297 (32)
BAMS	83 (41)	156 (40)	232 (38)	308 (36)	460 (32)
NGPI	46 (40)	67 (38)	98 (32)	*134* (28)	*170* (24)
NGPS^**	47 (21)	70 (20)	98 (17)	*130* (15)	*191* (13)
UKMI	52 (40)	88 (38)	*118* (36)	*153* (34)	*230* (30)
UKM^**	52 (21)	87 (20)	*116* (19)	*144* (18)	*200* (16)
A90E	46 (41)	96 (40)	141 (38)	188 (36)	385 (32)
A98E	46 (41)	95 (40)	140 (38)	197 (36)	424 (32)
A9UK	52 (19)	104 (18)	157 (18)	213 (18)	449 (16)
EMX		61 (9)		*122* (7)	*150* (6)
NHC Official	39 (41)	80 (40)	125 (38)	167 (35)	237 (28)
NHC Official 10-Year Average (1988-1997)	47 (1838)	88 (1633)	127 (1449)	165 (1284)	248 (1006)

^** - Output from these models was unavailable at time of forecast issuance.

Table 8. Mean absolute intensity forecast errors for Hurricane Mitch - homogeneous sample. Bold italicized number represents forecasts which were better than the Official forecast. Numbers in parenthesis is the bias. (Number in parenthesis below 10-year averages is the number of cases)
Forecast Technique Period (hours)

12 24 36 48 72

SHIPS 11.1 (-3.4) 13.0 (-2.9) 20.2 (-4.2) 26.4 (-3.2) 36.8 (-7.0)

GFDI 14.3 (-11.9) 15.5 (-9.1) 23.2 (-5.5) 32.7 (-1.6) 45.7 (6.3)

SHFR 13.0 (-5.2) 15.1 (-5.6) 22.9 (-7.8) 34.2 (-11.3) 48.3 (-19.2)

NHC Official 9.4 (-2.7) 12.9 (-1.3) 19.5 (0.8) 28.5 (1.9) 35.4 (2.0)

Number of Cases 35 31 28 25 21

NHC Official 10-Year Average
(1988-1997) 7.0 (-1.5)
(1905) 12.0 (-2.3)
(1724) 15.9 (-3.8)
(1548) 18.5 (-5.2)
(1373) 21.4 (-5.8)
(1062)

Table 8. Mean absolute intensity forecast errors for Hurricane Mitch - homogeneous sample. Bold italicized number represents forecasts which were better than the Official forecast. Numbers in parenthesis is the bias. (Number in parenthesis below 10-year averages is the number of cases)
Forecast Technique	Period (hours)
12	24	36	48	72
SHIPS	11.1 (-3.4)	13.0 (-2.9)	20.2 (-4.2)	*26.4* (-3.2)	36.8 (-7.0)
GFDI	14.3 (-11.9)	15.5 (-9.1)	23.2 (-5.5)	32.7 (-1.6)	45.7 (6.3)
SHFR	13.0 (-5.2)	15.1 (-5.6)	22.9 (-7.8)	34.2 (-11.3)	48.3 (-19.2)
NHC Official	9.4 (-2.7)	12.9 (-1.3)	19.5 (0.8)	28.5 (1.9)	35.4 (2.0)
Number of Cases	35	31	28	25	21
NHC Official 10-Year Average (1988-1997)	7.0 (-1.5) (1905)	12.0 (-2.3) (1724)	15.9 (-3.8) (1548)	18.5 (-5.2) (1373)	21.4 (-5.8) (1062)

^** - Output from this model is not available until after forecast issuance.

HURRICANE MITCH

Hurricane Mitch Reports

Hurricane Mitch Photos

Hurricane Mitch Personal Reports

Hurricane Mitch Personal Photos

a. Synoptic History

b. Meteorological Statistics

c. Casualty and Damage Statistics

d. Forecast and Warning Critique

Acknowledgments: